Annual population growth in Spain has been modest since 2009 and negative since 2012 – more people are dying and less babies are being born in Spain. This could be explained largely by the economic crisis, mixed with proportionally more women in the workplace, less women of child bearing age, and smaller family sizes. With this negative trend continuing, Spain’s population is set to decline with deaths outnumbering births from 2015 for the first time. The INE’s recent report outlines the demographic changes projected until 2064.
Reduction in Fertility rate
Since 2009, the number of births has been decreasing and if continuing at the same rate, projections are 5.1 million births between 2014-2028 which is 24.8% less than the previous 15 years! This can be explained mainly by the fall in population of women of child bearing age (15-49 years old) which projections indicate will be reduced by 1.9 million (17.4%) in 15 years and by 4.3 million in 50 years (39.2%). Additionally, the average age of first time mothers, currently 31.7 years in 2014, would rise to 33 years by 2064 with the average woman having 1.22 children compared to today’s 1.27.
Increase in Deaths
Yes, Spain has an ageing population and longevity is predicted to increase 4 years for women (to 88.7 years old) and 3 years for men (to 84 years old) in the next 15 years alone. However, as nature takes its course, the number of deaths in 15 years time will eclipse current figures : In 2014 there will be approximately 395,000 deaths but the total predicted for 2014-2029 is 6 million deaths, 7.1% more than the previous 15 years.
Negative migration
You read it right. Despite increasing immigration in Spain (332,522 in 2014 which is 14.3% more than 2013) there will be more people leaving Spain than coming to reside in Spain (417,000 approx left in 2014) and it has been this way for the past 5 years. This is set to change from 2021 when statisticians have simulated the reduction in emigration alongside steady immigration leading to a net population gain due to migration once more – however this alone will not stop the population shrinkage predicted through increased deaths.
30-49 years old age group bracket most affected
Taking each age group bracket individually and as a whole, we can see from the population pyramid that the active population is shrinking over the next 50 years most notably in the 30-49 year old segment which will decrease by 1 million people in the next 15 years and 6.8 million over the next 50 years. Difficult for the Spanish economy indeed… Conversely, all age groups over 70 will increase – think of the geriatrics market people! Over the next 15 years this sector will increase by 2.9 million people to 11.3 million, and in 50 years to 15.8 million!
Analysing all age groups together, the largest is currently 34-39 years old. In 2029 it is predicted to be the 50-54 years old group, and in 2064 the 85-89 years old group. This is a potentially dangerous situation with the dependency ratio potentially reaching 95.6% by 2064.
Households
Despite the population drop however, the number of households resident in Spain is set to increase by 5.2% in the next 15 years explained by the reduction in household size due to decrease from 2.5 people per household to 2.34 people per household. People living alone are a growing group,
In conclusion, these stats may seem rather alarming, however the INE has maintained that the simulated growth (or lack of it) will occur only with the same conditions continuing as they are today (low birth rate, high death rate and high emigration).
If you think you may need help with starting your business in Spain please contact us at Spainwide us to see how we can help you.
The economic structure – its components and motives – is resulting in the population decline. The economic structure is based on Capitalism: thus, as some have concluded, Capitalism inhibits reproductive rates. And we could continue with other conclusions…
Isn’t population decline a positive outcome? I thought we were too many people on this earth.